China's furniture industry macro toward is a serious topic, shall not be clearly pseudoscience, only pious pursuit of truth, understand the origin of things, just not be misled by some noise.
Many companies and many people used to have a blind conformity, all things are like rush, swarm underground. And some \"experts\" or acting the experts and scholars to see what new MiaoTouXing things out, will be abnormal hyped, and applicability of the concept of infinite amplification some clamoring intentionally or unintentionally. One thing the combination, boosting the extremes. When the concept of a bubble burst in practice, will chase again under a new concept, so enough and disturb the order of thought and the industry. Start online will replace offline, then talk about O2O; Custom is not satisfied, again a whole house custom; With the emergence of fine decoration and integration solutions, a real estate developers to gobble up the furniture industry posture; There are big platform, data, and so on, and so on. All kinds of new ideas emerge in endlessly, abound, filled with a variety of media and BBS. As if it is incorrect to traditional enterprise operation, and as long as take on the new concept can rescue, bright.
This industry's affairs are also at the same time, some people always habitually to deny, and external industry seems to be what all good, the IT industry, and electrical appliances, real estate, and even the upstream materials industry, their approach is right.
There are external \"experts\", only then a few days to enter the industry, began to furniture industry, chanting subversion slogan. Say what electrical appliances enterprise has completed the integration, dimension is billions of level, the furniture industry billions of enterprise level is too low, only those small and medium enterprises should eventually die, only a few billions of grade of the enterprise is the right destination, the furniture industry cannot make their excitement, a time.
This article is not intended to deny any kind of concept itself.
But these views of frivolous, summary, vanity, shallow and ignorant has reached alarming levels, like in nearly 40 years of reform and opening-up, the Chinese furniture industry is nothing, as if all of the country's furniture is brain residues.What do you think it's nothing, the somebody else is other people's business, but we must clearly recognize that four things:
(1) the furniture industry has a totally different from any industry itself attribute, leaving the essence of the industry provides no value;
(2) any concept, idea has its specific condition and boundary, there isn't a concept is universal;
(3) the concept at best only tools and means, and hardly mode;
(4) the enterprise operation is a highly complex system, is not selling a concept or talk can solve, nor shall face or to a single dimension can clear. Or a little less concept, more thought and practice as well.
Industry attribute, is the basis of our discussion, and internal cause, any external cause must be through the internal cause can play a role. Industry evolution logic is also based on its properties, structure and form in the future are also its inherent law. The noise is not desirable.
1. The industry attributes
Furniture is completely different from any other industry's unique attributes, which means that any blind accepting all the practices of the industry are is dangerous and is unlikely to succeed.
1) very low industry concentration
The primary characteristics of furniture industry concentration is low, it is by the diversification of consumer demand and characteristic of the completely competitive market. Figure 1 concentration contrast for various industries worldwide. We can find that, the concentration degree of the furniture industry is not only far lower than cars and home appliances, even under clothing, textile and footwear and lowest.
Table 1 for other countries and regions in the world furniture industry concentration ratio statistics. The concentration in the furniture industry and its industrial and social and cultural characteristics related to the level of the developed Japanese culture and the market segmentation is the concentration lower than the root cause of the high level of other industrialized countries. Italy is a design and innovation oriented country, its low concentration degree is necessary. America's economic base, short history and culture, social consumption characteristics and the industrial structure is its concentration is much higher than other advanced economies. China has yet to finalize the design, no matter how in the end, the current low concentration will be improved, the industry is facing reshuffle and restructuring, but no matter how to improve it is difficult to reverse the basic laws. Those ideas down and ignore the small and medium-sized enterprise value are ignorant.China's furniture industry macro toward is a serious topic, shall not be clearly pseudoscience, only pious pursuit of truth, understand the origin of things, just not be misled by some noise.
Many companies and many people used to have a blind conformity, all things are like rush, swarm underground. And some \"experts\" or acting the experts and scholars to see what new MiaoTouXing things out, will be abnormal hyped, and applicability of the concept of infinite amplification some clamoring intentionally or unintentionally. One thing the combination, boosting the extremes. When the concept of a bubble burst in practice, will chase again under a new concept, so enough and disturb the order of thought and the industry. Start online will replace offline, then talk about O2O; Custom is not satisfied, again a whole house custom; With the emergence of fine decoration and integration solutions, a real estate developers to gobble up the furniture industry posture; There are big platform, data, and so on, and so on. All kinds of new ideas emerge in endlessly, abound, filled with a variety of media and BBS. As if it is incorrect to traditional enterprise operation, and as long as take on the new concept can rescue, bright.
This industry's affairs are also at the same time, some people always habitually to deny, and external industry seems to be what all good, the IT industry, and electrical appliances, real estate, and even the upstream materials industry, their approach is right.
There are external \"experts\", only then a few days to enter the industry, began to furniture industry, chanting subversion slogan. Say what electrical appliances enterprise has completed the integration, dimension is billions of level, the furniture industry billions of enterprise level is too low, only those small and medium enterprises should eventually die, only a few billions of grade of the enterprise is the right destination, the furniture industry cannot make their excitement, a time.
This article is not intended to deny any kind of concept itself.
But these views of frivolous, summary, vanity, shallow and ignorant has reached alarming levels, like in nearly 40 years of reform and opening-up, the Chinese furniture industry is nothing, as if all of the country's furniture is brain residues.
What do you think it's nothing, the somebody else is other people's business, but we must clearly recognize that four things:
(1) the furniture industry has a totally different from any industry itself attribute, leaving the essence of the industry provides no value;
(2) any concept, idea has its specific condition and boundary, there isn't a concept is universal;
(3) the concept at best only tools and means, and hardly mode;
(4) the enterprise operation is a highly complex system, is not selling a concept or talk can solve, nor shall face or to a single dimension can clear. Or a little less concept, more thought and practice as well.
Industry attribute, is the basis of our discussion, and internal cause, any external cause must be through the internal cause can play a role. Industry evolution logic is also based on its properties, structure and form in the future are also its inherent law. The noise is not desirable.
1. The industry attributes
Furniture is completely different from any other industry's unique attributes, which means that any blind accepting all the practices of the industry are is dangerous and is unlikely to succeed.
1) very low industry concentration
The primary characteristics of furniture industry concentration is low, it is by the diversification of consumer demand and characteristic of the completely competitive market. Figure 1 concentration contrast for various industries worldwide. We can find that, the concentration degree of the furniture industry is not only far lower than cars and home appliances, even under clothing, textile and footwear and lowest.
Table 1 for other countries and regions in the world furniture industry concentration ratio statistics. The concentration in the furniture industry and its industrial and social and cultural characteristics related to the level of the developed Japanese culture and the market segmentation is the concentration lower than the root cause of the high level of other industrialized countries. Italy is a design and innovation oriented country, its low concentration degree is necessary. America's economic base, short history and culture, social consumption characteristics and the industrial structure is its concentration is much higher than other advanced economies. China has yet to finalize the design, no matter how in the end, the current low concentration will be improved, the industry is facing reshuffle and restructuring, but no matter how to improve it is difficult to reverse the basic laws. Those ideas down and ignore the small and medium-sized enterprise value are ignorant.
For perfect competition industry, not only numerous competitive enterprise, and to enter and exit threshold is low, the product homogeneityphenomenon serious, perfect information, and industry chain enterprises difficult to hold for a long time not to imitate the core technology, so it is a typical easier into good business. Table 2 is the attribute and classification of various kinds of industry.
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Furniture is a kind of typical industrial products, has all common attribute of industrial products, such as to meet the needs of industrial production. Besides a few categories such as office and public furniture, furniture of other products is basically fix the quotas for marketing, specific clients are unknown in advance, there is no clear dialog object, which means that the uncertainty of market sales and subsequently and bring the huge risk. Companies in product development and marketing links is full of challenges, strategic level and operation ability is tested. Because of people, objects and environment variables in infinite, never has a standard answer, but also full of endless creation space.
At the same time, the difference is with almost all other industrial products, furniture and both environmental properties, it is closely connected with architecture and interior. General industrial products, usually only need to consider the single product design and manufacturing, such as cars, mobile phones, electrical appliances, etc. And must consider matching furniture, combined with the function of other products or division of labor, compatible with the style of other products, but also building landscape and indoor tonal, which is associated with life style. But not for building and indoor furniture is necessary of the industry and the market attributes.
Therefore, furniture seems simple, complicated in nature. Both the real estate industry and home appliance industry, their success and experience are hardly adapt to the furniture industry, any of contempt for the furniture industry will pay a heavy price. The furniture industry must be diversified, industrialization and life style.
2. The product form and manufacturing system
It is generally believed that the products should be with China's own characteristics; On the industrial system that German industrial 4.0 is inevitable trend, the two foothold is clear, later will be further parsing.
While other views are from a certain point. For example: some think with the fine decoration of the real estate is the trend of The Times, some argue that online or is O2O final home to return to, many more bullish on custom.
Regardless of the contradiction between these concepts, such as providing fine decoration integration ready plan with customized exactly which is the right route? How to reconcile the both? Where is the boundary? Also don't say on the view of hierarchy and confusion, i.e., have a plenty of from the point of view of industrial chain, have a plenty of on market segmentation, and from the channel and service, however, any single dimension is not enough to become the basis of the thinking about the industry as a whole.
2. The product form and manufacturing system
I have been discussed by many people in the future China furniture should go how to route.
It is generally believed that the products should be with China's own characteristics; On the industrial system that German industrial 4.0 is inevitable trend, the two foothold is clear, later will be further parsing.
While other views are from a certain point. For example: some think with the fine decoration of the real estate is the trend of The Times, some argue that online or is O2O final home to return to, many more bullish on custom.
Regardless of the contradiction between these concepts, such as providing fine decoration integration ready plan with customized exactly which is the right route? How to reconcile the both? Where is the boundary? Also don't say on the view of hierarchy and confusion, i.e., have a plenty of from the point of view of industrial chain, have a plenty of on market segmentation, and from the channel and service, however, any single dimension is not enough to become the basis of the thinking about the industry as a whole.
Say two things: first
One is the external sector or industry chain upstream and downstream industries are not comparable with the furniture industry, although there may be some cases of successful transformation or business extends into the furniture industry, but the company, more can't really eating the furniture industry. As the saying goes: interlaced, such as the hills, they are unlikely to know success factor of the furniture industry. Terminal intercept will have a certain effect, but only temporarily, as the furniture industry of the whole channel mode open, those problems will be readily solved, channels will be more and more three-dimensional, single channel of monopoly will not be able to continue.
Related: the state of the furniture manufacturing, sales and benefits in the first half of 2015
At present, is trying to enter the furniture industry outsider mainly has the following four.
(1) : the real estate in the furniture industry chain downstream of capital strength is abundant, the real estate concept is relatively new, such as vanke, fine decoration market is expanding in recent years, especially a second-tier cities. Need fine decoration furniture of form a complete set, as to how to form a complete set, is nothing more than you want to as a consolidator, but both self-built factory and to integrate the furniture of the downstream enterprises to the supply of can't fundamentally shake the whole furniture industry. If the industry chain extension, also is to solve their own problems, the real estate market as a whole is relatively closed and limited. Open can bring trouble to oneself, even if want to open, also must implement the market-oriented operation, because the business model is very different, but once the market, it will be integrated into the traditional furniture industry, as for the mother who is irrelevant. At the same time, integration solutions ideal is very plentiful, reality is bone, because of the different faces a long industrial chain, industrial property, the problem such as cross-border standard not unified, too many uncontrollable factors, resources and capabilities are hard to match, different industry attributes, easy to cause confusion. And for the furniture of form a complete set of enterprise may undertake to no small order, but is sustainable? Even if a period of time the sustainable, so whether enterprise can always control your own destiny? Will lost due to get in front of some orders channels, lost in the jungle of the market's ability to make a living? You know, once can't independent, once lost sex Wolf, then sooner or later be eliminated by the market.
(2) the home appliance industry: home appliances industry with billions of class size, but that is because the home appliance industry concentration is much higher than that of furniture industry, product differentiation is small, buy risk is lower than furniture, single home appliance effect on the indoor environment mood is far lower than the furniture. So, if the home appliance industry of thinking to run the furniture industry is difficult to effectively.
(3) in the IT industry, IT industry is the biggest advantage of the furniture industry informatization ability, but touch IT industry to make sure that the furniture in the field of law is much more difficult than furniture industry into IT technology, I agree with professor xu xiaonian, an economist's point of view, namely the Internet + is not exact, but + Internet is correct. Because the Internet is just means, is the fundamental of the industry.
Upstream or supporting industries (4) : as for the materials, floor, doors and Windows, and other upstream and ceramic and sanitary ware supporting industry, basically are run mode of B2B, B2C and furniture industry or different B2B2C mode, management ideas are very different, to be successful, not thoroughly remould oneself is hard to imagine.
The second is the future simple online and offline enterprise is not completely does not exist, but it has become a mainstream; Should not distinguish specializes in custom enterprise and couldn't do the custom. Marked by store entity channel port is \"eye\" of the market, represented by the network virtual world is the \"heart\" of the market, the physical world and virtual world will certainly seamless docking. Similarly, mainstream enterprise shall personalized needs of consumers have better responsiveness, but apart from a handful of workshop handicraft industry production mode to do small personalized custom products, the mainstream market custom furniture enterprises are only limited customization, based on mass customization production base, here has both economic considerations, more professional design is necessary. As amateurs customer itself is not the ability to manage and balance design of complex elements, fully meet the demand of customers all furniture and interior design, there would be no good effect in the end.
So, the future China furniture industry will go where? The author held in September in Shanghai \"China furniture industry cluster wing assembly\" is proposed in the keynote speech on the following formula, namely:
The future pattern of China's furniture industry and form = German industrial innovation system + 4.0 + Italian design of China's national endowment
4.0 1) German industry
Industrial 4.0 everybody already is not strange, see figure 02.
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Germany to big industry, big industry as the main body, marked by heavy equipment and automatic line. In the information age in response to personalized needs of consumers, implant and flexible production mode of mass customization and the Internet +, is based on big data and the Internet of things. The system's ultimate goal is to switch the operation of the enterprise from now B2B2C mode to C2B model, theoretically can completely according to customer demand upside down for production and value delivery to customers. And the realization of this model is not individual companies to be able to complete alone, but the need for industrial restructuring.
Industrial 4.0 but the innovation of product design is not able to solve all, the diversity of China is a multi-ethnic society, and the development of the gradient is very large, its size is equivalent to the whole of Europe. Manufacturing of pure thinking is not enough, not realistic, is dangerous.
2) design innovation system in Italy
Germany's board is the advantage of Italian furniture industrial system that is the whole industry ecology are established in accordance with the design drive to, rely on is the small and medium enterprises as the main body of the industrial cluster. Italian design from the trend in the research, the construction of the scene to the conceptual design, as well as the final solution, can always bring different feeling of surprise to consumers, and leading the trend of the global design, as shown in figure 3.
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Italian design always stand in the forefront of the world trend, and leading the trend of the global design, I'm afraid that no one can deny. But its design system and soil but seldom known to Chinese people. This is not just because Italy are:
The best production technology and engineering in the world
The excellence model maker and artisans
One of the world's most important design review
The world's most famous design exhibitions and related activities
The most prestigious design institute
The most prestigious public design research institutions
Art gallery, outstanding retail stores and flagship store
Italy not only has a mature and frontier and evolved continuously, the design of the deep theoretical system, at the same time, also have the design of the fertile soil. Highly specialized division of labor cooperation of small and medium-sized enterprises cluster is a society full of creativity, the cluster culture more firmly than the economy sustained steady stream of endogenous power. District in the north of the rumba, almost have all the conditions for the practical design, material, structure, or technology, as long as the designer request, will be someone to help him realize that it is almost unimaginable in Germany, because Germany is a big business, no one is willing to open yourself for a design prototype large-scale manufacture used in the production line.
This is has a long history and cultural tradition. Italy, there are two things that deeply affect the progress of human civilization, it is the Roman empire, laid the foundation of western civilization, if not the Roman empire, there would be no modern western civilization; The second is the Renaissance.
Industrial 4.0 is based on the mathematical and logical deduction, its veins is very clear and simple, but the design innovation system can't see, touch, so it's difficult to see, it is hard to understand, also cannot tell, or another. But the design is not and should not have a standard answer, also because of this, only with the creation of the infinite space, the boundless charm. Pure logical thinking can not restore the outline of the design, can explain design the magic of the world.
Design is a kind of philosophy, and only rely on the philosophical thinking to understand the true essence of design and innovation system.
If German industrial 4.0 is "art", then the Italian design innovation system can be called "dao".
3) China's national endowment
China geographically vast, equivalent to the whole of Europe, in the population is any western countries are compared, and a long history, is the birthplace of eastern civilization. The west Rome, has the east.
High speed development in contemporary China, everything is far not finalize the design. Therefore, any single, narrow and static thinking is not desirable, we ought to be eclectic other civilizations all beneficial nutrients, and on this basis, give full play to their own advantage, sui generis. Among them, China's national endowment is our own special soil, Chinese furniture products and industrial system of form cannot leave the talents in the future. Including our unique resources, history and culture, of the superstructure, social foundation, regional differences, the national literacy, value orientation, development gradient and so on.
About furniture in contemporary China, we think that modern Chinese furniture and new Chinese style furniture should be distinguish the two concepts, the latter has a relatively stylish elements of representational and sharp shape in China, there is a direct and straightforward, don't set in international degree is high, but the limitations are big. It can become an important part of modern Chinese furniture system in, but the former inclusive and tolerance should be larger, higher degree of internationalization. We imagine state should be deep connotation in China, but it's go elements and stylized.
The modern furniture no obvious characteristics of figurative elements in Scandinavia, but with the Nordic "soul", that is practical, natural, human nature and pure. Italian modern design no pattern on the element and set, but also has its core academic concept, that is 3 e principle, namely: aesthetic (Estetica), human body engineering (Ergonomia) and economy (Economia).
Chinese modern design should follow the ideals of what, has not been determined, also not to jump to conclusions, but also in the exploration and development, it needs the joint efforts of academia and industry, is inseparable from the designer group full of design practice, also requires theoretical workers and thinker in the high taste and deep insight. But the characteristics of contemporary Chinese furniture also is not completely without a trace, but have a signal, although the signal is weak, but 30 years of market trend of change has left its trajectory. Under the influence of the consumers in the cultural value orientation and the academic ideal world has been in the midst of an intangible and powerful game, manufacturing to its own survival and development, more and more concessions to the former, but the academic circles is not do nothing, the only climate conditions is not yet mature, obeys the law of things development tide will wash away all the backward ideology, subculture, after all, not just culture, mainstream culture of subculture will not accept indefinitely, but will be filtered, selective absorption, and evolution, and keeping. We also need time.
And the distribution of China's furniture manufacturing system should match with the product form, as shown in figure 4, in a long time, it will remain the basic characteristics of diversity. Both the most modern manufacturing methods, including industrial 4.0, there is also a way of traditional handicraft production, and more of the form will be derived by the combination of both and the infinite segmentation form, by hand is not used to do the machine can do better, but can do the machine can't do, and therefore to improve their value.
At the same time, both the large industrial system, also have highly specialized division of labor cooperation, small and medium-sized enterprises as the main body of industry cluster. Both the common, standardized operation and assembly line production, also have a lot of advanced special equipment is also very vacant. Both the concentration and more differentiation. Focus for efficiency, and the differentiation is conducive to innovation.
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3. The industrial structure
The future pattern of China's furniture industry has a geographical landscape, regional feature and industry form three major landscape, etc.
1) the geographical pattern of the
Geographical landscape in China's furniture industry are reset, industrial transfer is unstoppable, and the regularity and main reason has the following several aspects:
(1) inland, coastal developed areas, blank space migration to developing regions, as shown in figure 5.
(2) the driving force of the industrial transfer, from the lower costs to expand the market;
(3) industry transfer destination match two of three large longitudinal pattern, as shown in figure 6.
(4) eventually form a relatively reasonable and balanced industrial network.
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2) regional features
Is the characteristics of China light industry federation and China furniture association awarded the area with a total of 37, from the statistical data is 25, 22 of them for manufacturing class, class 3 for sales circulation. As shown in figure 7.
Figure 7 furniture characteristic regional distribution throughout the country
This distribution pattern will not easily change the history of formation, and deeply influenced the new layout at the same time.
But the forms are changed, some characteristic area has been completed or nearly completed its historic mission, the mature industrial clusters will face new problems, or recession, or transformation, regional industry cluster must be firmly follow the new situation and tasks to be upgraded to have a future.
3) industry form
Including traditional industry form industrial cluster, enterprise combined with emerging industrial park and so on three.
Overall, with the front "industry attributes" and "product form in conformity with the industrial system", positioning according to their own characteristics. And then, to industrial upgrading, specific include:
(1) the production method and equipment upgrades. A small amount of concentrated, the social division of labor cooperation, a large number of differentiation is the necessary condition.
(2) cluster and enterprise function and function upgrade. Must improve their management level, improve quality, reduce cost.
(3) product upgrades. Constantly improve old products and develop high quality new products, to improve product performance and adapt to changes in the form of social life.
(4) the value chain upgrade. , when you go to tap enterprise industry chain ends of smiling curve, especially must pay attention to service and experience. Custom is an important service, but is only one aspect, is far from all of them.
For the traditional area, must solve the problem of evolution. On the basis of development trend, repositioning, carding area of product structure and industrial structure, including the enterprise type and proportion. A public technology platform, focusing on cultivating the soil. The construction of regional brand and communication.
For enterprise vertical and horizontal joint, the future ecological group of Chinese furniture enterprises are still a few companies in the red sea market in precipitation is large, and even very large enterprise, and enterprise common development will drive a batch of satellite, but the top 10 enterprises with total market share is still less than 10%. Enterprise groups will remain small and medium enterprises dominate. But to survive or develop small and medium-sized enterprise is not now this highly homogenized state, but in every niche design innovative companies, some of these companies can be extremely the trend leader brand value, some may become the trend of hunters, and trend followers will increasingly narrow living space.
For the emerging industrial park, as the day after tomorrow made of artificial enclave, two problems need to be solved, i.e., the existence and the sustainable development. The problem is not big, because residents are generally in the market under the condition of network security to invest in the construction, but the latter must attach great importance to, this is the park's long-term orientation and its matching resources accumulation and capacity building. If there is no high starting point and the correct evaluation of the future development trend, it is likely just built has been out of style.
China's furniture industry brilliant future, want to rely on everyone to work together, common building. Various stakeholders is shouldering the industry and the social common responsibility, their needs, as shown in figure 8.
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Although we advocate responsibility and bear, from the Angle of reality, that's not enough, so you also need to consider the value of exchange and interest balance, based on the small pattern, aiming at big pattern. So, we have reason to believe that, Chinese furniture will from now the manufacturer to design and manufacture of real power.
This dream is also we shoulder the historical mission of this generation, our responsibility.